Brazil Polls Show Lula Ahead as Debate Plans Shift

In late September 2026, polls in Brazil showed President Lula leading the first round of the presidential election. A Quaest poll put Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%, while another survey had Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%. In a runoff simulation, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro were tied at 42%.

Lula initially resisted attending a Globo debate, with the PT president saying he wanted to face Flávio Bolsonaro directly. Flávio Bolsonaro changed his plans and decided to attend the debate. Separately, former Education Ministry secretaries from Jair Bolsonaro's government published a letter supporting Lula's reelection.