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The region is defined by a strategic contest for influence, with the Trump administration and its allies securing a major victory by ousting a Hong Kong firm from the Panama Canal, while internal security crises in Guatemala and political transitions in Honduras and Costa Rica unfold.
January 2026
Week of Jan 26, compared to 12-week average
No deviations this week.All weeks this month are quiet.
The regional economic landscape is dominated by a major shift in control over the Panama Canal's critical infrastructure. A Panama court canceled a Hong Kong company's canal port contracts, a move welcomed by the US and followed by Denmark's Maersk being positioned to operate the ports. China has threatened 'necessary action' in response to the ruling.
Political power is realigning under renewed US influence, marked by the inauguration of Trump-backed Nasry Asfura as Honduras's president and a decisive election in Costa Rica. The Panama court's constitutional ruling against the Hong Kong port operator is framed as a strategic US win, while Cuba remains a bilateral tension point between Mexico and the US.
Security is in crisis, with Guatemala declaring a nationwide state of siege after deadly attacks on police and prison riots, exposing government weakness against organized crime like Barrio 18. Costa Rica faces a dual threat from a foiled presidential assassination plot and a surge in drug trafficking in poor neighborhoods.
Societal tension centers on the human cost of migration and security policies, exemplified by the deportation of a US-citizen child to Honduras under the Trump crackdown. The trauma for children of gang war detainees in El Salvador persists, while Nicaragua's revocation of dual citizenship rights creates new instability.