Canada

The contest over the Arctic as retreating sea ice opens once-inaccessible waters, seabed and sea lanes to competition among the eight Arctic states and China. Four axes run through it: the militarization of the High North and NATO's northern expansion, the race for Arctic hydrocarbons and critical minerals, control of the emerging shipping routes, and the confrontation over Greenland that has strained transatlantic relations. Coverage is sharply divided — Western outlets frame Russian and Chinese activity as encroachment requiring deterrence, while Moscow and Beijing frame NATO's build-up and the US Greenland push as the destabilizing provocation.

The confrontation between the United States and Canada across trade, sovereignty and the internal cohesion of the Canadian federation. Three axes run through it: tariffs and the renegotiation of the trilateral trade agreement; rhetoric about annexation and statehood alongside disputes over jointly financed border infrastructure; and a secession movement in Alberta whose organisers have held contacts with American officials. The two economies are deeply integrated and the two states are treaty allies, which is what makes the dispute distinct from an ordinary trade conflict.