Southern Europe

The widening rift between the United States and its European allies under a Washington that treats Europe more as a competitor than a partner. It runs along four axes: a tariff and trade confrontation; a dispute over defence burden-sharing and the credibility of the US security guarantee; Europe's answering drive for strategic autonomy and rearmament; and a clash over technology regulation and digital sovereignty. Beneath them runs a deeper question of whether the transatlantic alliance that defined the post-war order still holds — a fracture Moscow and Beijing cover with schadenfreude.

The contest over the European Union's internal cohesion and the balance of authority between its institutions and its member states. It runs along several axes: rule-of-law and budget-conditionality disputes between Brussels and national governments; the division over migration and asylum policy; the realignment of Europe's political right and the debate over cooperation with national-conservative parties; and domestic polarisation within Germany, France and Hungary. The friction is internal to the Union, distinct from its disputes with the United States, with Russia, or over Ukraine, which are covered in separate theaters.