Visegrad Group

The contest over the European Union's internal cohesion and the balance of authority between its institutions and its member states. It runs along several axes: rule-of-law and budget-conditionality disputes between Brussels and national governments; the division over migration and asylum policy; the realignment of Europe's political right and the debate over cooperation with national-conservative parties; and domestic polarisation within Germany, France and Hungary. The friction is internal to the Union, distinct from its disputes with the United States, with Russia, or over Ukraine, which are covered in separate theaters.

The confrontation between Russia and European states and institutions outside the direct Ukraine battlefield: NATO military posture on the eastern flank, below-threshold gray-zone activity, contested airspace over NATO territory, and the sanctions regime imposed on Russia since 2022. Participants include Russia, NATO and EU member states along the eastern flank (Baltic, Nordic, Visegrad), Germany, France, the UK, and the United States.