IMF warns global economy at risk of recession if Iran war persists

On April 14, 2026, the IMF cut its outlook for global growth and warned of a possible global recession if the Iran war worsens or persists. It expects higher inflation, and the Financial Times wrote the war could slow global growth to its weakest since the pandemic. The IMF cut its euro zone growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%, said the UK faces the biggest hit among major economies, and cut forecasts for Asia's emerging economies and the Middle East.

The IEA warned of a historic oil supply shock and said global oil demand is heading for a contraction of 80,000 barrels per day. The EBRD chief warned of a serious economic shock if the war drags on, and the World Bank chief warned of a jobs crisis. TASS quoted the IMF as saying oil and gas prices could rise by 100% and 200% in a prolonged war.