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Ethiopia's security landscape is dominated by escalating tensions with Tigray and Eritrea, driving military expansion and high-level diplomatic outreach to Israel, Türkiye, and Italy for strategic support. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's concurrent pursuit of a seaport in Eritrea and major energy investments creates a volatile mix of confrontation and development.
February 2026
Week of Feb 23, compared to 12-week average
Ethiopia is aggressively pursuing bilateral trade deals and major energy infrastructure investments. The government secured a tripling of trade volume with Russia, attracted $400 million in private investment for power lines, and inaugurated a Chinese-built wind farm. Parallel efforts focus on value-chain development, including a meeting with Italy on the coffee sector.
Ethiopian diplomacy is intensely focused on the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, marked by high-profile visits and contentious regional claims. President Herzog of Israel visited as Selassie reiterated support for a two-state solution, while President Erdogan of Türkiye made his first visit in over a decade. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's stated vision includes acquiring a seaport in Eritrea, a claim Egypt publicly denied offering flexibility on.
Security is deteriorating with a high and specific risk of renewed war in Tigray involving Eritrea. Multiple reports warn the Tigray region is on the brink of war, with analysis pointing to forces behind a growing Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced military expansion and naval exercises, while a drone strike killed one in Tigray and he accused Eritrea of atrocities in Aksum.
Societal tension is centered on the acute fear of renewed conflict and displacement in Tigray. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Türk, expressed fears of a new crisis in Tigray amid renewed fighting. This concern overshadows other internal issues, such as the disputed repatriation decree facing the Wolaita community.