Africa

The eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been contested for three decades by armed groups, the Congolese state and neighbouring governments. The current phase combines the M23 insurgency and its disputed external backing, an externally brokered mediation and sanctions track, and competition over the cobalt, coltan and copper deposits that sit in and around the same territory. The United States, China, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and the United Nations mission are all engaged.

The Horn of Africa is being reordered by overlapping disputes: the contested international status of Somaliland, an unresolved confrontation between Ethiopia and its northern and downstream neighbours, and the uneven reconstruction of the Somali state. Outside powers -- Israel, Turkey, Egypt, the Gulf states, the United States and China -- are all party to at least one of them.

The Sahel and Lake Chad basin as a single conflict zone: jihadist insurgency, Tuareg separatism in northern Mali, military governments consolidating power after successive coups, the competition to replace France as the region's security patron, and the rupture of relations with Paris.