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The US under Trump is conducting an escalating economic and political siege against Cuba, centered on cutting off oil supplies, while Cuba's government under Díaz-Canel defiantly rejects US demands and society faces a humanitarian crisis and new emigration wave.
January 2026
Week of Jan 26, compared to 12-week average
Cuba's economy is facing an imminent fuel collapse due to a concerted US blockade of its oil supply. Trump signed an order allowing tariffs on countries selling oil to Cuba, and Mexico's Pemex halted shipments under US pressure, leaving Cuba with only 15 to 20 days of oil reserves. The threat is existential, framed as an 'oil siege' that could cripple the nation.
US-Cuba relations are defined by direct US threats and Cuban defiance. Trump warns Cuba to make a deal or face consequences, suggests regime change, and reposts a suggestion that Rubio become Cuba's next leader. Cuba's Díaz-Canel rebuffs these threats, stating there are no current talks with the US and that 'nobody dictates to us'.
Security tensions are high, with the US considering a naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports and European embassies activating evacuation plans. The period also saw the aftermath of Cuban combatant deaths in Venezuela, with the return of soldiers' remains, and reports of a Pentagon device linked to Havana syndrome.
Cuban society is in a state of despair and mobilization, with the dominant tension being between the urge to emigrate and defiant nationalism. Residents say life is impossible and the only option is to leave, prompting a new emigration wave, while others rally against US 'imperialists' and receive the remains of soldiers killed abroad.