Turkey's independent course

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and controls the straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. For half a century it followed Washington's lead. Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power since 2003, it follows its own: it buys arms from Russia and sells drones to Ukraine, keeps troops in Syria, Iraq and Libya, hosts Hamas and offers itself as a mediator to everyone. Its allies cannot do without it and do not trust it. Its sharpest quarrel is now with Israel, over Gaza and over who will shape Syria.

Where it stands · September 2026

In September 2026 Erdogan said Turkey may deepen its ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, led by China and Russia. At the United Nations General Assembly he called for recognition of northern Cyprus. He told Zelensky that attacks on ships in the Black Sea are unacceptable. Netanyahu ordered preparation of an International Criminal Court case against Erdogan over Kurds and Hamas funding. A Turkish comedian was convicted over a joke about Erdogan.

What the dispute is about

What an ally owes. Turkey sits in NATO and refuses its sanctions on Russia; it hosted the alliance's summit in July and signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in August. Its partners ask which side it is on. Ankara answers: its own.

Syria. Turkey backed the winners of the Syrian war and means to arm and train their army. Israel says it will not allow that. Each accuses the other of wanting to dominate its neighbour.

What kind of state. The man who has governed for twenty-three years has jailed his strongest rival. European governments criticise this and at the same time pay Turkey to hold back migrants and buy its weapons.

How each side explains it

Ankara's account

Turkey was a loyal ally for decades and was rewarded with a closed door in Europe, American arms for Kurdish militants on its border, and lectures. It learned to rely on itself. It talks to Moscow and Kyiv, to Tehran and Washington, because someone must. It sheltered four million Syrians when Europe built fences. It speaks for Palestinians because governments richer and closer did not. A country of eighty-five million at the junction of three continents is not a junior partner, and those who need its army, its bases and its factories should stop treating it as one.

In our coverage

Turkey is a legitimate independent middle power and broker →356 headlines
Covered by:Daily Sabah · TRT World · Anadolu Agency · TASS (EN) · Al-Ahram · Al Jazeera

Israel's account

Erdogan's Turkey shelters the leaders of Hamas, calls them freedom fighters, seeks the arrest of Israel's prime minister and is moving its army into Syria. It wants to be to Israel's north what Iran was. It takes from the West with one hand and joins the West's rivals with the other. It should not be given advanced aircraft, and it will not be allowed to build bases within reach of Israel.

In our coverage

What each account leaves out

Ankara's leaves out that its freedom of action rests on NATO's guarantee and on Europe's market, which takes most of its exports; that it depends on Russia for gas and for its first nuclear plant; and that its army has held northern Cyprus since 1974, which the Security Council calls an occupation, while it condemns occupation elsewhere.

Israel's leaves out that Turkey recognised Israel in 1949 and was for decades its closest partner in the region; that each break followed an Israeli operation in Gaza, not a Turkish initiative; and that an American envoy described Israel's August strike in Syria as an attempt to bait Turkey.

The critics' leaves out that the European Union kept Turkey's membership application waiting for twenty years, including the years when it was reforming, while French and German leaders said openly that it would never be admitted; and that they mute their criticism whenever they need the migration agreement or Turkish drones.

The ledger

Turkey's government

Wanted: a free hand and a seat at every table.
Gained: a friendly Syria, the end of the Kurdish insurgency, the American president's favour, new alliances.
Paid: an economy worn down by inflation, and an open confrontation with Israel.

Israel

Wanted: Turkey kept out of Syria and away from advanced American arms.
Gained: neither so far.
Paid: a capable state added to its list of adversaries.

The Western allies

Wanted: Turkey inside the tent.
Gained

Words in dispute

Names and terms the sides do not share. This page keeps them out of its own voice.

strategic autonomy / unreliable ally
mediator / two-faced
neo-Ottoman
resistance movement / terrorist organisation, of Hamas
illiberal democracy / competitive authoritarianism
privileged partnership