South Caucasus realignment

Armenia's external alignment is a central and contested question of the country's politics. Armenia is a member of the Russian-led CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union and has depended on Russia for security and trade. Its defeats in the wars over Nagorno-Karabakh opened a debate over those arrangements and over closer relations with the European Union, including trade measures, an association and accession debate, and high-level European engagement. Armenian politics divides between forces favouring alignment with Russia and the Russian-led blocs and those favouring integration with the EU, and national elections have been contested on this axis. Russia has applied economic measures affecting Armenian exports and has publicly stated that an EU turn would carry economic consequences. The dispute involves security guarantees, trade dependence, energy and domestic political competition at once.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is the region's longest-running interstate dispute, centred on Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognised as Azerbaijani and inhabited by ethnic Armenians. It was fought over in a first war in 1988-1994, a second war in 2020, and a 2023 Azerbaijani operation, after which Azerbaijan reestablished full control and the territory's Armenian population departed. The two states have negotiated toward a peace treaty and the delimitation of their border, with outstanding issues including the return of prisoners and detainees, accountability and war-crimes allegations, mutual constitutional and territorial claims, and guarantees against renewed fighting. In parallel, Armenia and Turkey -- whose shared border has been closed since the 1990s -- have pursued normalisation, including talks on trade and reopening rail and road links. The situation spans a diplomatic track and a persistent risk of renewed border clashes.

Georgia, a state on Russia's southern border, is the subject of recurring disputes over its external orientation and internal politics. It holds EU candidate status, and disagreements over progress toward accession are central. A law requiring organisations that receive foreign funding to register drew large protests and criticism from EU institutions; the government compares it to transparency laws in Western states, while opponents compare it to Russian legislation. Election results and the conduct of votes have been contested between the governing party and the opposition, at times accompanied by street protests and police response. Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which separated from Georgian control in conflicts in the early 1990s and again during the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, remain outside Tbilisi's authority and are backed by Russia. The node is maintained as a standing placeholder for a region where tensions can escalate quickly.

The Zangezur corridor is a proposed transport link that would cross Armenia's southern Syunik province to connect the main territory of Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, and, if extended, link Turkey with the Caspian and Central Asia. Proposals have included an arrangement referred to as the "Trump Route" or TRIPP, involving a United States operating role. The route is contested on several grounds: whether and how Armenia retains sovereignty and control over the section on its territory; Iran's opposition to an arrangement that would cut its land border with Armenia; Russia's role in monitoring or guaranteeing transit; and the trade-off between the economic benefits of connectivity and the security concerns of the states affected. As a physical link between the peace process and regional trade, the corridor draws together the interests of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, Russia and the United States in a single route.

The South Caucasus lies at the meeting point of several external powers that compete for influence as the regional balance shifts. Azerbaijan's energy resources -- managed through the state company SOCAR and exported via the Southern Gas Corridor -- underpin its relations with Europe and Turkey, and Caspian hydrocarbons draw wider interest. Israel and Azerbaijan maintain close security and energy ties, and recognition of the Armenian Genocide by outside states is a point of contention between Israel and Turkey and has drawn Azerbaijani objection. Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have been strained by incidents including detentions of nationals and a strike on a SOCAR facility. Iran opposes external military presence near its northern border. Competing transport projects -- the Zangezur route and the Iran-Russia International North-South Transport Corridor -- add an economic dimension to the contest among Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel and the United States.