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Deliberately a broad slice: insurgency, the AU mission, the election crisis and piracy are one story about state capacity, not four separate ones.
Each card below is one coalition with its own frame on the same contested phenomenon.
Weekly attributed-headline count per narrative. Visual asymmetry is signal: some coalitions dominate the vocabulary, others stay sporadic.
Loaded vocabulary per coalition and recent headlines under each frame.
Per-week distribution of events on this friction node. Click a bar to see that week's top events.
Click a week bar to select. Light blue = active week.
Distinct conflicts with their own coalitions. Headlines that fit here do not show in the umbrella above.
The single largest strand of Horn coverage in 2026, and the one that pulls the most outside powers in.
Tigray and Eritrea are one fused story in the 2026 record, not two; the Egyptian dimension has shifted from water alone to regional alignment.
The federal government is steadily recovering ground and capacity: offensives are pushing al-Shabaab out of districts, offshore energy exploration and Turkish training are building genuine state institutions, and neighbours increasingly treat Mogadishu as a partner rather than a problem.
Horn of Africa
TurkeyThe recovery is thinner than claimed: famine is returning as aid funding collapses, the capital saw armed clashes over a delayed election, piracy has resumed off the coast, and the counter-terror campaign is inflicting civilian casualties with little accountability.
Horn of AfricaSomalia's insecurity is being deepened from outside: American airstrikes kill civilians while Washington blocks UN support for the African Union mission, and an Israeli military foothold on the coast would turn Somali waters into another front in someone else's war.
Deliberately a broad slice: insurgency, the AU mission, the election crisis and piracy are one story about state capacity, not four separate ones.
Horn of Africa
United States