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Coverage in the first half of 2026 divides sharply: the M23 war de-escalated through the period while the mediation and sanctions track kept producing, and an Ebola outbreak came to dominate Congolese coverage overall without being part of this dispute.
Coalitions with their own frame on the umbrella conflict.
Loaded vocabulary per coalition and recent headlines.
Distinct conflicts with their own coalitions. Headlines that fit here do not show in the umbrella above.
Kinetic coverage fell steadily across the first half of 2026, from heavy fighting and drone strikes early in the year to an M23 withdrawal and government forces retaking ground by May.
The largest single cluster here is the designation of the Rwandan army and of former president Joseph Kabila; the accords themselves generate far less coverage than the sanctions used to enforce them.
After years in which external actors declared concern and did little, the instruments finally have teeth: a monitoring mechanism signed in Switzerland, prisoners released and humanitarian corridors agreed, financial designations placed on a neighbouring army and on a former head of state, and capital moving into Congolese mining assets rather than around them. Engagement of this kind is treated as the one lever that has moved anything.
The dominant international reading treats the fighting in the east as one system rather than several problems: an insurgency sustained from across a border, a mediation track that is signed but not observed, and an extraction economy that runs through the same contested ground. What connects them is who absorbs the cost -- populations detained in captured towns, displaced across borders, killed by strikes meant for combatants, or buried in a collapsed mine on territory the armed group controls.