Asia

The contest over the Arctic as retreating sea ice opens once-inaccessible waters, seabed and sea lanes to competition among the eight Arctic states and China. Four axes run through it: the militarization of the High North and NATO's northern expansion, the race for Arctic hydrocarbons and critical minerals, control of the emerging shipping routes, and the confrontation over Greenland that has strained transatlantic relations. Coverage is sharply divided — Western outlets frame Russian and Chinese activity as encroachment requiring deterrence, while Moscow and Beijing frame NATO's build-up and the US Greenland push as the destabilizing provocation.

Australia's strategic position between its largest trading partner and its principal security ally. Four axes run through it: the contest with China over the security and diplomatic alignment of the Pacific island states; a trade relationship in which iron ore, beef and critical minerals carry both dependence and leverage; the contested assessment of Chinese espionage and military reach; and the AUKUS submarine programme, whose revision has made alliance reliability a domestic Australian question. Coverage divides between Australian and Western outlets, Chinese state media, and — on AUKUS — Australian critics of the pact itself.

The widening rift between the United States and its European allies under a Washington that treats Europe more as a competitor than a partner. It runs along four axes: a tariff and trade confrontation; a dispute over defence burden-sharing and the credibility of the US security guarantee; Europe's answering drive for strategic autonomy and rearmament; and a clash over technology regulation and digital sovereignty. Beneath them runs a deeper question of whether the transatlantic alliance that defined the post-war order still holds — a fracture Moscow and Beijing cover with schadenfreude.

Competition among external powers -- the United States, China and the European Union -- for trade terms, resource access, infrastructure contracts and control of strategic ports across Latin America.

Strategic competition between Japan and China spanning five dimensions: the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and adjacent East China Sea waters, Japan's position on the Taiwan question, Japan's defense posture and the constitutional constraints on it, Chinese trade and travel measures applied to Japan, and disputes over the interpretation of wartime history. Each dimension carries its own vocabulary and set of actors, and the five interact with each other over time.

The unresolved confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, where the Korean War was halted by an armistice rather than concluded by a peace treaty. Five axes run through it: North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programme and the sanctions architecture built around it; the United States-South Korea alliance, with its exercises, command arrangements and extended-deterrence commitments; North Korea's military alignment with Russia, including troop deployments to the war in Ukraine; China's economic and diplomatic patronage of Pyongyang; and the inter-Korean relationship itself, which North Korea has redefined constitutionally as a relationship between separate states. Coverage divides by bloc: Western, South Korean and Japanese outlets report the Northern programme as a threat requiring containment, while Russian and Chinese state media present Pyongyang's arrangements with Moscow and Beijing as lawful cooperation between sovereign states.

The contested borders of South Asia, where two nuclear-armed states and their neighbours dispute territory, water and responsibility for cross-border violence. Five fault lines run through it: the air campaign and border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan along the Durand Line; the Kashmir territorial dispute between India and Pakistan; the separatist insurgency in Balochistan; the Indus Waters Treaty, suspended by India and contested by Pakistan; and the militant attacks that each state attributes to the other. Pakistan is a party to four of the five.

The South Caucasus -- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia -- at the intersection of Russian, Turkish, Iranian and Euro-Atlantic interests. The region carries several unresolved disputes: the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict centred on Nagorno-Karabakh, the question of Armenia's alignment between the Russian-led blocs and the European Union, the status of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, transit corridors across the region, and competition among external powers over influence, energy routes and security ties. It has seen repeated wars, including the Nagorno-Karabakh wars and the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.

The dispute over Taiwan's political status and the military, diplomatic and economic contest surrounding it. Beijing claims the island as Chinese territory and has not renounced the use of force to take it; Taipei governs the island separately and rejects that claim. The contest spans Chinese military and coast guard activity around the island and the deterrence response to it; the scope and reliability of United States arms supply and security policy; political influence activity directed at Taiwan and the contest over it among the island's parties; and Taiwan's diplomatic recognition and participation in international organisations. The United States and Japan are parties to the security dimension without maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.

The bilateral economic and technological contest between the United States and China: tariffs and trade investigations, export controls on advanced semiconductors, the competition over artificial intelligence, dependence on Chinese critical-mineral supply, and the leader-level diplomacy conducted alongside them. Both governments hold and use restrictive instruments — Washington licenses access to advanced chips and design tools, Beijing licenses rare-earth exports and decides on market access and foreign acquisitions. The geographic flashpoints where the two also compete are carried by separate theaters.