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Iran is in a state of open military conflict with the US and Israel, marked by direct strikes and retaliatory missile attacks, while nuclear diplomacy continues in parallel. The security crisis has triggered severe economic disruption and a profound societal shock over the reported death of Supreme Leader Khamenei.
February 2026
Week of Feb 23, compared to 12-week average
supportive and authoritative
The economy is under severe strain from conflict-driven market shocks and sanctions. Oil prices surged to seven-month highs due to US-Iran tensions and fears of conflict, while new US oil sanctions were imposed immediately after talks. The direct military strikes at the end of the period caused airlines to cancel Middle East flights and prompted OPEC+ to consider a larger production increase.
Nuclear diplomacy with the US persists as a parallel track to military conflict, with multiple rounds of talks held in Geneva and Oman. However, the process is undercut by aggressive rhetoric from Trump, who expressed frustration with the talks and, alongside Netanyahu, publicly claimed the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, which Iran denied.
Security is dominated by a major, direct military confrontation. The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, to which Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Israel and US Gulf bases. This escalation followed a period of heightened tension, including US carrier deployments to the Middle East and Iran closing part of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises.
Society is in a state of profound shock and uncertainty over the reported death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, with conflicting reports sparking cheers in Tehran amid the air strike tensions. The dominant tension is between the state's narrative control and public reaction to this potential leadership vacuum, set against a backdrop of government-anniversary rallies and diaspora protests.
